Trans-Pacific Correlation Research EXPERIMENTAL
North Pacific THD Coupling Analysis | Cascadia - Tokyo
Cascadia - Tokyo (Primary)
SIGNIFICANT
r = 0.58
Pearson Correlation (zero-lag)
P-value
< 0.001
Optimal Lag
-1 day (Tokyo leads)
Correlation at Lag
r = 0.90
Tidal Phase Diff
149.0 deg (OK)
Lag correlation analysis (negative lag = Tokyo leads)
Hayward - Tokyo (Secondary)
SIGNIFICANT
r = 0.48
Pearson Correlation (zero-lag)
P-value
0.008
Optimal Lag
-1 day
Tidal Phase Diff
145.4 deg (OK)
Lag correlation analysis
Hayward - Hualien (Negative Control)
NOT SIGNIFICANT
r = 0.27
Pearson Correlation
P-value
0.152
Status
Calibration artifact confirmed
Tidal Phase Diff
110.4 deg
Original r=-0.72 was due to IU.TATO station calibration issues.
After correction, no significant correlation remains.
This validates our tidal correction methodology.
Hypothesis Testing Status
IN PROGRESS
| Hypothesis | Test | Status |
|---|---|---|
| H0: Tidal Aliasing | Phase opposition check | REJECTED |
| H0: Timezone Artifact | UTC alignment audit | REJECTED |
| H1: Physical Coupling | Sub-daily RMS (17h vs 24h) | PENDING DATA |
Next Test: Sub-daily (6-hour) RMS analysis to distinguish
17-hour timezone lag from 24-hour physical propagation.
Requires 7+ days of 6-hour samples.
THD Time Series (Cascadia vs Tokyo)
ACCUMULATING
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Lag Correlation Structure
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Key Finding: Tokyo leads Cascadia by 1 day with r=0.90.
Asymmetric lag structure (r=0.90 at lag=-1 vs r=0.10 at lag=+1)
rules out symmetric binning artifacts.
Propagation speed ~87 m/s (~312 km/h) matches atmospheric phenomena.