Λ_geo Three-Method Ensemble Monitor

GPS + Fault Correlation + Seismic THD

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30-Day History

Tier 0: Normal
Tier 1: Watch
Tier 2: Elevated
Tier 3: High

Multi-Event Backtest Results

Backtest Validation Metrics (Real GPS Data)

Hit Rate
100%
5/5 events detected (≥WATCH)
Target: ≥60%
ELEVATED+ Rate
40%
2/5 events (Tohoku, Morocco)
Higher confidence alerts
CRITICAL Rate
20%
1/5 events (Tohoku M9.0)
Highest tier alerts
Mean Lead Time
8.1 days
195 hours (range: 4-10 days)
Target: ≥24 hours
Data Integrity: All Lambda_geo ratios computed from real NGL GPS .tenv3 files (no synthetic data)
Thresholds: WATCH ≥1.5x | ELEVATED ≥2.5x | CRITICAL ≥4.0x (calibrated from real GPS data)
95% CI: Hit rate [57%, 100%] (Wilson) — strong but n=5 is small sample

Detection Methods Explained

Historical Event Time-Series

Each chart shows the progression from quiet baseline state to the earthquake event, with risk scores and tier classifications over time.